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2月份AMI指數(shù)為45.1%,預(yù)計3月將挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間
2024-03-07
08:41:24
來源:中國農(nóng)業(yè)機械流通協(xié)會 閱讀量:16311
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導(dǎo)讀:2月份,AMI環(huán)比小幅提升,同比大幅下降,降幅超過20%,銷售能力及效益指數(shù)環(huán)比、同比雙雙下滑。
【農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 市場行情】中國農(nóng)業(yè)機械流通協(xié)會發(fā)布的2024年2月份中國農(nóng)機市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為45.1%,環(huán)比提升2.8個百分點,同比下降22.1個百分點。從環(huán)比看,6個一級指數(shù)中,銷售能力指數(shù)、效益指數(shù)和庫存指數(shù)有所下滑,其余指數(shù)均呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,其中經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)大幅攀升,比上月同期增長31.4個百分點;從同比看,6個一級指數(shù)全部呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,其中,效益指數(shù)大幅下滑38.1個百分點。本月6個一級指數(shù)除經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間,其余仍處在不景氣區(qū)間。
特約分析師張華光認(rèn)為:上個月,我們預(yù)測到了2月份AMI環(huán)比有望提升,同比則會出現(xiàn)下滑的走勢特征,但同比降幅超過20%卻有些出乎意料,從AMI月度同比走勢圖中可以看出,開年2月份,AMI依舊處于三年來同期歷史低位,并且降幅在進(jìn)一步擴大。中國的傳統(tǒng)節(jié)日春節(jié)在2月份,節(jié)前及節(jié)后覆蓋大半個月時間,市場停滯是普遍現(xiàn)象,這也是影響本月AMI下滑的重要因素之一。
2月份AMI的基本特征
2月份,AMI環(huán)比小幅提升,同比大幅下降,降幅超過20%,銷售能力及效益指數(shù)環(huán)比、同比雙雙下滑。
其一,降幅擴大,景氣度偏低。2月份,AMI整體降幅進(jìn)一步擴大,環(huán)比小幅上升2.8個百分點,同比大幅下滑22.1個百分點,是繼2018年以來2月同期AMI歷史新低。一級指數(shù)中反映銷售情況的銷售能力指數(shù)和效益指數(shù)同樣下滑嚴(yán)重,據(jù)監(jiān)測,2月份銷售能力指數(shù)環(huán)比下滑3.4個百分點,同比下滑24.4個百分點;效益指數(shù)環(huán)比下滑5.5個百分點,同比下滑38.1個百分點。
形成此現(xiàn)象的原因主要有以下幾個方面。首先,整個經(jīng)濟環(huán)境的基本面偏向需求不足,預(yù)期偏弱,風(fēng)險較多,投資性的需求變得愈發(fā)謹(jǐn)慎,另外,我國主要糧食作物耕種收機械市場經(jīng)過10余年的高速發(fā)展,已趨于飽和,市場剛性需求逐年下降。其次,就2月當(dāng)月來說,銷售周期本就不足兩周,部分經(jīng)銷商月底才開始營業(yè),銷售情況大幅下滑也在情理之中。
其二,經(jīng)理人信心爆棚。銷售和效益情況下滑的同時,經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)出現(xiàn)攀升,環(huán)比大幅增長31.4個百分點,也是本月唯一挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間的一級指數(shù),景氣度高達(dá)72.7%。2、3、4月份是春耕旺季,本月經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)飆升也標(biāo)志著農(nóng)機市場旺季的到來。
其三,市場人氣升溫。2月份,作為反映終端市場景氣度晴雨表的人氣指數(shù)雖然仍停留在不景氣區(qū)間,但走勢處在上升通道中,環(huán)比提升4.8個百分點,同比下滑27.4個百分點,2月份的農(nóng)機市場人氣已經(jīng)開始升溫,這也說明市場在轉(zhuǎn)暖,凸顯即將進(jìn)入旺季的特征。
其四,細(xì)分市場全部下滑。2月份,各個細(xì)分市場全軍覆沒,從所監(jiān)測的5個二級指數(shù)看,
拖拉機、耕整地機械、
種植機械、田間管理機械、
收獲機械指數(shù)環(huán)比、同比雙雙下滑,尤其是同比出現(xiàn)斷崖式下滑,除收割機指數(shù)外,其他四類機械指數(shù)同比下滑幅度均超過25%,其中種植機械指數(shù)同比、環(huán)比降幅均最大,環(huán)比下降9.4個百分點,同比下降33.2個百分點。
從三級指數(shù)解析細(xì)分市場
2月份所監(jiān)測的10個三級指數(shù)的環(huán)比“3增7降”。大型拖拉機、旋耕機及自走輪式谷物聯(lián)合收獲機市場環(huán)比略有提升。10個三級指數(shù)同比全部下降,除玉米收獲機和自走輪式谷物聯(lián)合收割機降幅在個位數(shù),其余市場同比降幅均在兩位數(shù)以上,多數(shù)市場下滑幅度超20%。春耕時節(jié)將近,拖拉機、耕整地機械以及種植機械屬應(yīng)季產(chǎn)品,從本月監(jiān)測的三級指數(shù)來看,大型拖拉機、微耕機、旋耕機指數(shù)環(huán)比均有提升,種植機械指數(shù)則出現(xiàn)環(huán)比同比大幅下降的情況,尤其是插秧機指數(shù),環(huán)比同比降幅超過兩位數(shù),這一反常走勢應(yīng)引起重視。
大型拖拉機市場:大型拖拉機指數(shù)是少數(shù)環(huán)比增長的指數(shù),本月大型拖拉機指數(shù)環(huán)比增長2.2個百分點,同比下滑23.4個百分點,說明市場不如去年同期,但環(huán)比有所增長,意味著大型拖拉機市場正處在上升通道中,市場在逐步復(fù)蘇,受季節(jié)性和政策性影響,大型拖拉機市場的走勢還要看即將到來的三月份。
耕整地機械市場:總體來看耕整地機械市場環(huán)比小幅下滑1.9個百分點,同比大幅下降29.8個百分點。從細(xì)分市場來看,微耕機市場和旋耕機市場環(huán)比均有小幅提升,深松機市場環(huán)比下滑,三大市場同比均大幅下降超過25%。
收獲機市場:2月份,三大糧食作物收獲機指數(shù)的景氣度雖然仍停留在不景氣區(qū)間,整體收獲機指數(shù)環(huán)比、同比分別下降1.8和9.7個百分點。從三大細(xì)分市場來看,唯一環(huán)比上升的市場就是輪式谷物聯(lián)合收割機,本月呈現(xiàn)出上升勢頭,履帶式聯(lián)合收獲機和玉米收獲機環(huán)比、同比雙雙下滑,但下滑的幅度并不大,尤其是玉米收獲機,是本月唯一同比降幅最小的品類,同比僅下滑1.3個百分點。
種植機械市場。2月份,種植機械市場呈現(xiàn)出環(huán)比、同比雙雙大幅下滑的反常走勢,環(huán)比下滑9.4個百分點,同比下滑33.2個百分點,其中插秧機指數(shù)環(huán)比下滑14.5個百分點,同比下滑29.9個百分點,在春耕春播的時節(jié),種植機械市場本應(yīng)走出上升勢頭,但卻一反常態(tài),出現(xiàn)大幅下滑,這與1月份種植機械市場指數(shù)大幅增長有關(guān),1月份,該指數(shù)景氣度高達(dá)48.7,直逼景氣區(qū)間,而2月份又恰逢春節(jié),銷售情況下滑也是必然的事。
3月份AMI走勢判斷
預(yù)計3月份,AMI將挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間。環(huán)比大幅增長,同比持平或小幅下滑。多數(shù)一、二、三級指數(shù)環(huán)比提升,同比冷熱不均的概率較大。
已經(jīng)開始的3月份,春節(jié)已經(jīng)結(jié)束,市場旺季已經(jīng)來臨,季節(jié)因素成為主導(dǎo)3月份AMI的關(guān)鍵因素。市場逐步活躍,交易開始頻繁。
從全球范圍看:2月份美國和歐元區(qū)制造業(yè)PMI終值分別為47.3%和48.5%。美國制造業(yè)PMI已連續(xù)兩個月擴張,歐元區(qū)制造業(yè)仍在收縮區(qū)間。2月份中采制造業(yè)PMI為49.1%(前值49.2%),延續(xù)2023Q4以來的收縮狀態(tài),新出口訂單指數(shù)降至46.3%(前值47.2%),進(jìn)口指數(shù)46.4%(前值46.7%)。雖然中國制造業(yè)的出口新訂單指數(shù)仍在繼續(xù)收縮,但2023Q4美國利率見頂回落之后,美國銷售增速已實現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)正,美國庫存增速也開始筑底;同期美國制造業(yè)PMI逐漸走出收縮區(qū)間,中國出口已經(jīng)實現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)正。
從國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟基本面看:市場或出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟基本面或經(jīng)濟預(yù)期的改善。3月份兩會結(jié)束后,國家將出臺一系列有效政策,對于改善當(dāng)前市場環(huán)境及經(jīng)濟預(yù)期將起到?jīng)Q定性作用(如09年四萬億、16年供給側(cè)改革、19年貨幣信用雙寬等),而三農(nóng)問題一直是我們黨和國家工作的重中之重,從2004年至今,已經(jīng)有21年的中央一號文件連續(xù)聚焦“三農(nóng)”,今年中央一號文件的出臺,也將給予農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)者極大的信心。
產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈分析。從制造端看,進(jìn)入3月份后,制造企業(yè)為了抓住市場旺季展開激烈的市場競爭,采取各項優(yōu)惠讓利政策吸引客戶。從銷售端看,經(jīng)銷商通過對所處市場的分析,一些有信心的經(jīng)銷商響應(yīng)制造企業(yè)的促銷政策,加大庫存量。同時利用新媒體、金融政策等手段加大優(yōu)惠力度。從市場終端看,春耕春播開啟,用戶對于購買農(nóng)機的需求強烈。基于廠家、經(jīng)銷商各種優(yōu)惠政策的疊加,此時正是出手的好時機。
AMI內(nèi)生動力分析,以下幾個維度均指向動能偏弱。第一,市場信心有所恢復(fù)。作為先行指數(shù)的經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù),本月大幅提升31.4個百分點,以72.7的景氣度強勢進(jìn)入景氣區(qū)間,經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)的走勢說明多數(shù)經(jīng)理人對3月份的市場很有信心,預(yù)示3月份的市場將有較大起色。第二,AMI走勢變化規(guī)律看。自2014年至2023年9年間AMI的表現(xiàn)看,3月份景氣度高于2月的概率為78%。僅2022年和2023年3月份景氣度低于2月份?;诖艘?guī)律判斷,3月份AMI走勢環(huán)比上揚,同比持平或下降的可能性較大。
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