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環(huán)比上升1.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn),中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布11月份AMI指數(shù)
2021-12-10
10:24:45
來(lái)源:中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)流通協(xié)會(huì) 閱讀量:16717
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導(dǎo)讀: 11月份AMI指數(shù)為45.7%,比上月提升1.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn),比上年同期下降1.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】 11月份AMI指數(shù)為45.7%,比上月提升1.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn),比上年同期下降1.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2021年11月份中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為45.7%,環(huán)比提升1.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比下降1.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從環(huán)比看,6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼指數(shù)、庫(kù)存指數(shù)和經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)有所提升,其中經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)增幅最高,增長(zhǎng)9.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從同比看,6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中銷(xiāo)售能力指數(shù)和農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼指數(shù)略有下降,其中銷(xiāo)售能力指數(shù)下降1.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中除銷(xiāo)售能力指數(shù)依然停留在景氣區(qū)間,其余均位于不景氣區(qū)間。
特約分析師張華光認(rèn)為:11月份AMI表現(xiàn)波瀾不驚,但其特點(diǎn)卻十分突出:其一,環(huán)比出現(xiàn)小幅增長(zhǎng)。其二,二級(jí)指數(shù)中的
種植機(jī)和田間管理機(jī)械依然位于景氣區(qū)間,且保持了較高的景氣度,與之對(duì)應(yīng)的三級(jí)指數(shù)中的免耕
播種機(jī)和植保飛行器出現(xiàn)較高景氣度。
回溯AMI發(fā)布以來(lái)的9年間,今年是第3次出現(xiàn)11月份環(huán)比小幅增長(zhǎng)的情況,前兩次分別發(fā)生在第1次試發(fā)布的2013年和去年,環(huán)比增幅分別為0.2和0.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。2013年出現(xiàn)的環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)更多源自AMI各項(xiàng)指標(biāo)尚處于調(diào)整期,偶發(fā)因素較強(qiáng)。去年的原因主要因?yàn)檠a(bǔ)貼政策三年一調(diào)整,導(dǎo)致多數(shù)區(qū)域提前購(gòu)買(mǎi)。而今年環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)主要是基于10月景氣度出現(xiàn)大幅度下滑,創(chuàng)下今年除1月份之外的第二低點(diǎn),正是10月份景氣度形成的“洼地”,形成了11月份環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)的非正常表現(xiàn)。同比下降,遵循了下半年AMI的走勢(shì)持續(xù)走弱的邏輯。
環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)并沒(méi)有改變11月份市場(chǎng)的淡季屬性,這種判斷從以下三個(gè)方面可得到詮釋?zhuān)旱谝唬珹MI位于低點(diǎn)上;第二,市場(chǎng)監(jiān)測(cè)顯示,各個(gè)細(xì)分市場(chǎng)雖仍有零星銷(xiāo)售發(fā)生,但大規(guī)模的銷(xiāo)售已經(jīng)完成;第三,制造端忙于布局明年市場(chǎng),并進(jìn)行適量生產(chǎn);經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商把主要精力放在回收貨款和儲(chǔ)備庫(kù)存方面,市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入短暫的平靜期。
種植機(jī)械和田間管理機(jī)械保持較高的景氣度,主要是受農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼政策對(duì)其細(xì)分市場(chǎng)的影響,譬如免耕播種機(jī)和植保飛行器市場(chǎng),受補(bǔ)貼影響,出現(xiàn)較大幅度攀升,對(duì)11月份的景氣度產(chǎn)生較大影響,進(jìn)而對(duì)AMI的走勢(shì)也產(chǎn)生了一定的影響。
12月份走勢(shì)判斷。預(yù)計(jì)12月份,AMI依然會(huì)停留在不景氣區(qū)間,或復(fù)制11月份的表現(xiàn):環(huán)比小幅增長(zhǎng),同比小幅下降,整體表現(xiàn)波瀾不驚。6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中的銷(xiāo)售能力指數(shù)的雖在淡季頑強(qiáng)的堅(jiān)守在景氣區(qū)間,但12月份或?qū)舸s枯線,進(jìn)入不景氣區(qū)間。
首先,12月份AMI仍然會(huì)徘徊在不景氣區(qū)間。從季節(jié)因素看,12月份正值農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)淡季,屬于農(nóng)閑季節(jié),市場(chǎng)需求位于全年的低位;從近8年發(fā)展規(guī)律看,除2013年位于景氣區(qū)間外,其它年份均處于不景氣區(qū)間,此規(guī)律如沒(méi)有影響市場(chǎng)的偶發(fā)的關(guān)鍵因素出現(xiàn),很難改變;從農(nóng)機(jī)細(xì)分市場(chǎng)看,絕大多數(shù)市場(chǎng)位于蕭條期,AMI缺乏強(qiáng)大的支撐。11月雖出現(xiàn)異常的環(huán)比增長(zhǎng),但這種增長(zhǎng)是基于“兩連跌”形成的“洼地”之上,且處于較低的景氣度,意味著農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)基本走勢(shì)規(guī)律并無(wú)變化。
其次,環(huán)比會(huì)出現(xiàn)小幅增長(zhǎng)。從11月份的人氣指數(shù)和經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)看,人氣指數(shù)環(huán)比持續(xù)下跌,但經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)卻呈現(xiàn)較大幅度增長(zhǎng),提示多數(shù)經(jīng)理人看好12月份市場(chǎng),此其一;其二,歲末環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)、景氣度翹頭是大概率的事,尤其是2017年以來(lái),連續(xù)4年環(huán)比均出現(xiàn)不同程度的增長(zhǎng);其三,12月份,制造企業(yè)通過(guò)優(yōu)惠促銷(xiāo)政策,刺激經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商壓庫(kù)存,這種情況在11月份的庫(kù)存指數(shù)中已經(jīng)顯現(xiàn),環(huán)比、同比均出現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng),年底指數(shù)走勢(shì)翹頭或?qū)⒀永m(xù)至12月。
最后,同比下跌的概率很大。第一,主要是今年農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)突出的特點(diǎn)是前揚(yáng)后仰,上半年表現(xiàn)好于下半年。第二,從對(duì)各個(gè)細(xì)分市場(chǎng)的監(jiān)控發(fā)現(xiàn),多數(shù)市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入下半年后,月度同比出現(xiàn)不同程度的下跌。尤其是占比較大的大中拖市場(chǎng)和谷物、玉米聯(lián)合收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)。預(yù)計(jì)12月份跌幅或?qū)?chuàng)新高,對(duì)AMI會(huì)產(chǎn)生較大的利空影響。第三,去年12月份,農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)受補(bǔ)貼政策影響,大中拖、深松深耕機(jī)具、免耕播種機(jī)市場(chǎng)均出現(xiàn)大幅度增長(zhǎng),形成市場(chǎng)“高地”。
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