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地點(diǎn):
開展時間: 2025-02-11
舉辦單位: 美國加州圖拉爾國際展覽中心
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地點(diǎn): 巴彥淖爾市
開展時間: 2025-02-22
舉辦單位: 內(nèi)蒙古春季農(nóng)機(jī)展組委會
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地點(diǎn): 廣州市
開展時間: 2025-02-25
舉辦單位: 廣州光亞法蘭克福展覽有限公司
環(huán)比下降8.1個百分點(diǎn),中國農(nóng)機(jī)流通協(xié)會發(fā)布10月份AMI指數(shù)
2021-11-11
11:29:57
來源:中國農(nóng)機(jī)流通協(xié)會 閱讀量:25441
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導(dǎo)讀:10月份AMI指數(shù)為44.4%,比上月下降8.1個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期下降1.8個百分點(diǎn)。
【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場行情】
中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會月度發(fā)布
2021年10月(總第九十一期) 11月9日發(fā)布
10月份AMI指數(shù)為44.4%,比上月下降8.1個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期下降1.8個百分點(diǎn)。
中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會發(fā)布的2021年10月份中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為44.4%,環(huán)比下降8.1個百分點(diǎn),同比下降1.8個百分點(diǎn)。從環(huán)比看,6個一級指數(shù)全部呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,其中人氣指數(shù)降幅最高,為16.7個百分點(diǎn)。從同比看,6個一級指數(shù)中除銷售能力指數(shù)和人氣指數(shù)略有上升,其余全部呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,其中庫存指數(shù)降幅最高,為4.3個百分點(diǎn)。6個一級指數(shù)中除銷售能力指數(shù)依然停留在景氣區(qū)間,其余均位于不景氣區(qū)間。
特約分析師張華光認(rèn)為:誠如上月預(yù)測,10月份AMI擊穿榮枯線,終結(jié)了連續(xù)三個月的景氣區(qū)間之旅,跌入不景氣區(qū)間,并創(chuàng)下了今年以來的次低景氣度。第4季度的農(nóng)機(jī)市場初露崢嶸,成為AMI由盛轉(zhuǎn)衰的拐點(diǎn)。
從過去10個月的走勢曲線不難看出,1-7份,AMI走勢均位于去年和前年的上方,意味著今年的市場總體好于過去兩年。轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)發(fā)生在8月份,之后9月、10月,月度同比走出“兩連跌”。今年市場環(huán)境復(fù)雜多樣,且利空因素一直表現(xiàn)的較為強(qiáng)烈。上半年市場的增長主要基于去年農(nóng)機(jī)作業(yè)收益的增長和補(bǔ)貼政策的刺激,但并不能改變?nèi)缬半S形的強(qiáng)烈利空因素的影響。其一,水患的影響。下半年發(fā)生在一些區(qū)域的水患,導(dǎo)致輪式機(jī)具無法下田作業(yè),農(nóng)機(jī)投資者損失慘重,打壓了潛在市場需求,對11月份乃至明年的市場信心均產(chǎn)生較強(qiáng)的壓制;其二,原材料漲價、單臺補(bǔ)貼額度下調(diào)、補(bǔ)貼資金兌付嚴(yán)重滯后、局部地區(qū)疫情的影響、限電等多重利空因,對供應(yīng)端、銷售端和需求端整個市場價值鏈均產(chǎn)生了一定的負(fù)面影響;其三,去年同期,一些主流區(qū)域市場農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼“透支”嚴(yán)重,加之今年的補(bǔ)貼政策對補(bǔ)貼資金超出部分進(jìn)行了限量,即不得超出當(dāng)年補(bǔ)貼資金的10%,形成許多主流區(qū)域市場補(bǔ)貼資金嚴(yán)重不足,譬如黑龍江、新疆等市場;其四,去年同期景氣度達(dá)到了46.2%,成為過去8年來僅低于2015年次高景氣度,形成景氣度“高地”;其五,上半年市場走勢較好,今年消費(fèi)提前,對11月份的市場也產(chǎn)生了一定影響;其六,一些細(xì)分市場連續(xù)多年的高位運(yùn)行,市場增幅趨緩,如免耕
播種機(jī)、大型
拖拉機(jī)、青
飼料收獲機(jī)等,對整體市場貢獻(xiàn)率下降。
11月份走勢判斷。預(yù)計11月份,AMI會繼續(xù)停留在不景氣區(qū)間,且同比、環(huán)比會出現(xiàn)不同程度的下跌。本期6個一級指數(shù)中僅存的停留在景氣區(qū)間的銷售能力指數(shù)或?qū)舸s枯線,進(jìn)入不景氣區(qū)間。二級指數(shù)中的種植機(jī)械指數(shù)和田間管理指數(shù)跌入不景氣區(qū)間的概率也很大。
11月份AMI仍然會徘徊在不景氣區(qū)間,主要有以下幾個理由。第一,11月份,秋耕、秋收均已結(jié)束,處于農(nóng)閑季節(jié),正值農(nóng)機(jī)市場淡季;第二,去年同期AMI達(dá)到了46.8%,創(chuàng)下了自2013年以來11月份的最高景氣度,形成景氣度“高地”,今年很難超越;第三,從細(xì)分市場分析,受農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼政策影響,去年一些市場大幅度增長,譬如大型拖拉機(jī)市場,對今年市場產(chǎn)生較大負(fù)面影響;第四,從農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼看,去年多數(shù)區(qū)域農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼“透支”嚴(yán)重,對市場產(chǎn)生了較大影響;第五,從人氣指數(shù)和經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)看,人氣市場環(huán)比“高臺跳水”,經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)環(huán)比、同比均下降,且處于較低的景氣度,二者均預(yù)示著11份的AMI下跌概率較大;第六,從AMI多年的發(fā)展規(guī)律看。自2013年AMI發(fā)布至2020年的8年間,除2013年、2020年2年,11月份的景氣度高于10月份,概率僅25%,且去年的增長主要基于補(bǔ)貼新政實(shí)施前的刺激,其它月份均低于10月份,今年市場如無偶發(fā)性關(guān)鍵因素出現(xiàn),AMI大概率會下降,且同比、環(huán)比均會出現(xiàn)不同程度的下跌。
附件:2013-2020年10月與11月AMI景氣度對照一覽表 單位:%
我國傳統(tǒng)大眾農(nóng)機(jī)市場早已告別了短缺時代,從增量市場跨入存量市場,而新興市場短期內(nèi)貢獻(xiàn)率較低,由此決定了市場低速運(yùn)行將成為常態(tài)。個別年份,如去年受特殊原因的影響出現(xiàn)大幅度增長,并不代表農(nóng)機(jī)市場趨勢發(fā)生了改變。我們對今年全年市場乃至明年市場走勢的分析只要基于此現(xiàn)實(shí),方可更加客觀。
一、一級指數(shù)運(yùn)行情況
(一)銷售能力指數(shù)
2021年10月,銷售能力指數(shù)為50.6%,比上月下降8.6個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期提升0.8個百分點(diǎn),位于景氣區(qū)間。
(二)效益指數(shù)
2021年10月,效益指數(shù)為42.0%,比上月下降7.5個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期下降2.3個百分點(diǎn),位于不景氣區(qū)間。
(三)農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼指數(shù)
2021年10月,農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼指數(shù)為45.1%,比上月下降8.9個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期下降2.8個百分點(diǎn),位于不景氣區(qū)間。
(四)庫存指數(shù)
2021年10月,庫存指數(shù)為41.7%,比上月下降8.8個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期下降4.3個百分點(diǎn),位于不景氣區(qū)間。11月份是傳統(tǒng)的市場淡季,經(jīng)銷商壓低庫存,回籠資金,成為當(dāng)下的主要任務(wù)。
(五)人氣指數(shù)
2021年10月,人氣指數(shù)為41.9%,比上月下降16.7個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期提升2.4百分點(diǎn),位于不景氣區(qū)間。
(六)經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)
2021年10月,經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)為34.6%,比上月下降0.1個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期下降3.7個百分點(diǎn),位于不景氣區(qū)間,并創(chuàng)下了今年的最低景氣度,意味著接下來的市場或更加慘淡。
二、二級指數(shù)運(yùn)行情況
(一)拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)
2021年10月,拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)為46.1%,比上月下降2.3個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期下降3.8個百分點(diǎn),位于不景氣區(qū)間。
(二)耕整地機(jī)械指數(shù)
2021年10月,耕整地機(jī)械指數(shù)為53.9%,比上月提升1.1個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期提升5.7個百分點(diǎn),位于景氣區(qū)間。
(三)種植機(jī)械指數(shù)
2021年10月,種植機(jī)械指數(shù)為55.0%,比上月下降8.2個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期提升17.1個百分點(diǎn),位于景氣區(qū)間。種植指數(shù)仍位于景氣區(qū)間,主要得益于播種機(jī)市場的持續(xù)旺銷。因?yàn)橐恍﹨^(qū)域水患影響,導(dǎo)致播種期延后,延長了一些區(qū)域播種機(jī)市場的旺季。
(四)田間管理機(jī)械指數(shù)
2021年10月,田間管理機(jī)械指數(shù)為55.3%,比上月下降13.4個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期提升15.0個百分點(diǎn),位于景氣區(qū)間。
(五)收獲機(jī)械指數(shù)
2021年10月,收獲機(jī)械指數(shù)為43.1%,比上月下降17.1個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期下降13.1個百分點(diǎn),位于不景氣區(qū)間。
三、三級指數(shù)運(yùn)行情況
(一)大型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)
2021年10月,大型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)為50.3%,比上月提升0.6個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期下降7.9個百分點(diǎn),挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間。
(二)中型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)
2021年10月,中型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)為42.3%,比上月下降3.4個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期下降4.1個百分點(diǎn),位于不景氣區(qū)間。
(三)旋耕機(jī)指數(shù)
2021年10月,旋耕機(jī)指數(shù)為47.9%,比上月下降4.6個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期下降3.6個百分點(diǎn),位于不景氣區(qū)間。
(四)自走式履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(jī)(全喂入)指數(shù)
2021年10月,自走式履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(jī)(全喂入)指數(shù)為39.7%,比上月下降14.7個百分點(diǎn),與上年持平,位于不景氣區(qū)間。
(五)自走輪式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(jī)指數(shù)
2021年10月,自走輪式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(jī)指數(shù)為40.1%,比上月下降24.9個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期下降3.9個百分點(diǎn),位于不景氣區(qū)間。
(六)自走式玉米收獲機(jī)指數(shù)
2021年10月,自走式玉米收獲機(jī)指數(shù)為36.8%,比上月下降12.1個百分點(diǎn),比上年同期下降7.0個百分點(diǎn),位于不景氣區(qū)間。
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