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當(dāng)前全國秋收進(jìn)度如何?全年糧食是否能豐收?

2021-10-20 11:56:09 來源:農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)整理發(fā)布 閱讀量:24106 評論

導(dǎo)讀:全年糧食豐收已成定局,可實(shí)現(xiàn)年初確定的糧食產(chǎn)量保持在1.3萬億斤以上的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展主要預(yù)期目標(biāo)。

  【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 熱點(diǎn)關(guān)注】 10月20日,國務(wù)院新聞辦公室舉行了新聞發(fā)布會(huì),介紹前三季度農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行情況,并答記者問。
 
  針對大家普遍關(guān)心的秋糧收獲和產(chǎn)量問題,農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部種植業(yè)管理司司長潘文博表示,今年的秋雨使秋收格外忙,今年秋季北方降雨偏多,特別是9月下旬以來兩輪強(qiáng)降雨,給北方的秋收帶來了不利影響。
 
  一方面,秋雨連綿造成秋收進(jìn)度放緩,據(jù)農(nóng)情調(diào)度,截至目前全國秋糧收獲75%,比常年慢了4個(gè)百分點(diǎn),秋雨影響秋收主要在中西部的黃淮海和西北地區(qū),對東北、華南、江南影響較小。黃淮海和西北地區(qū)的問題主要是土壤普遍過濕,常規(guī)機(jī)械下不了地,秋收進(jìn)度慢,常年這個(gè)時(shí)候玉米基本已經(jīng)收完了,今年收的只有八成多。另一方面,秋雨連綿造成了秋收成本增加,一年到頭都在忙,收到手里才是糧。為了應(yīng)對地濕的問題,把豐產(chǎn)的糧食收上來,有的農(nóng)民需要把輪式收割機(jī)改成履帶式,有的要把稻麥?zhǔn)崭顧C(jī)改成收玉米的,有些需要人工來搶收,這些都明顯增加了收獲成本。黃海地區(qū)反映,今年機(jī)收玉米,1畝地增加的成本大約是50-100元。
 
  目前,全國秋糧收了75%,應(yīng)該說全國秋糧收獲大頭已經(jīng)落地,從各地實(shí)打?qū)嵤蘸娃r(nóng)情調(diào)度情況看,河南、山西、陜西因嚴(yán)重洪澇和干旱,秋糧確實(shí)是減產(chǎn)了。但其他主產(chǎn)區(qū)秋糧多數(shù)是增產(chǎn)的,特別是東北四省區(qū)增得比較多,全國有減有增,增得比減得多,算總賬,全國秋糧是增的。剛才曾總師也講到秋糧豐收已成定局,今年秋糧豐收有三個(gè)因素:一是秋糧的播種面積穩(wěn)中有增,這是豐收的基礎(chǔ);二是高產(chǎn)作物玉米面積增加比較多,加上光溫水匹配較好,單產(chǎn)是提高的,這是豐收的關(guān)鍵;三是河南、山西、陜西大家都比較關(guān)注,這些地方局部災(zāi)情確實(shí)很重,是多年少有的,重災(zāi)的農(nóng)戶甚至是絕收的,但是總的看,全國農(nóng)業(yè)受災(zāi)程度輕于常年。有一組數(shù)據(jù),今年農(nóng)作物受災(zāi)面積1億畝左右,近10年平均每年農(nóng)作物受災(zāi)3.6億畝,從受災(zāi)面積和受災(zāi)程度看,今年我們農(nóng)業(yè)的災(zāi)情應(yīng)該是近10年最輕的一年。
 
  潘文博表示,我國糧食分夏糧、早稻和秋糧三季,夏糧、早稻這兩季已經(jīng)豐收到手了,合計(jì)增產(chǎn)了74億斤,加上秋糧也是增產(chǎn)的,現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該說全年糧食豐收已成定局,可實(shí)現(xiàn)年初確定的糧食產(chǎn)量保持在1.3萬億斤以上的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展主要預(yù)期目標(biāo)。
 

 

  最后,秋種方面,9月份以來的持續(xù)降雨不僅影響秋收,更主要影響秋種,由于土壤普遍偏濕,騰茬整地困難,冬小麥播種受阻。截至10月19日,全國冬小麥播種進(jìn)度26%,比常年慢了27個(gè)百分點(diǎn),特別是河北、山東、山西、河南、陜西大部播種比常年晚了15天以上。今年晚播麥比例大,晚播麥冬前積溫就不足,將導(dǎo)致冬前分蘗減少、個(gè)體偏弱、群體偏小,不利于培育冬前壯苗。有的地方農(nóng)田積水沒法排除,可能會(huì)錯(cuò)過播期,無法下種。土壤過濕也會(huì)加重小麥條銹病、莖基腐病等病蟲草害發(fā)生。但專家講,小麥生育期長、230天,回旋余地大,過去也有播期推遲的時(shí)候,只要冬前能播下去,開春后管理措施跟得上,奪取豐收還是有希望的。
 
  針對秋雨對秋收秋種帶來的不利影響和嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn),下一步,農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部將按照黨中央、國務(wù)院的決策部署,堅(jiān)持問題導(dǎo)向,采取超常規(guī)措施,迎難而上、精準(zhǔn)指導(dǎo),重點(diǎn)抓三件事:一是抓好秋收掃尾,確保顆粒歸倉;二是抓好秋播秋種,力爭冬小麥面積不下降或少下降;三是抓好冬前和早春的麥田管理,為明年夏糧豐收夯實(shí)基礎(chǔ)。
 
  本文由農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)(m.qktnz.cn)整理發(fā)布,資料來源:國務(wù)院新聞辦公室。
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