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雙節(jié)即將來臨,肉類價格會上漲嗎?如何保障“肉類安全”?
2020-09-10
17:52:06
來源:農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)原創(chuàng) 作者:林言 閱讀量:59511
評論
導(dǎo)讀:今年國慶前的肉價會不會大漲?作為消費(fèi)者的廣大吃貨能不能愉快地“每逢佳節(jié)胖三斤”了?
【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 編輯視角】 中秋+國慶雙節(jié)即將到來,這兩個節(jié)日作為國人慶祝的日子,自然少不了“大吃一頓”,因此豬牛羊等肉類價格也成了大家關(guān)心的熱點(diǎn)。那么今年國慶前的肉價會不會大漲?作為消費(fèi)者的廣大吃貨能不能愉快地“每逢佳節(jié)胖三斤”了?
節(jié)前肉類漲價空間有限
我們先來看一下單日的
農(nóng)產(chǎn)品批發(fā)價格。據(jù)農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部監(jiān)測,9月10日“農(nóng)產(chǎn)品批發(fā)價格200指數(shù)”與9日基本持平,牛肉稍稍上漲,豬肉持平,羊肉稍稍下降。再來看一下月度數(shù)據(jù),從圖2可以看出,近幾個月以來,豬牛羊肉批發(fā)價基本成上升狀態(tài),除豬肉波動幅度稍大外,牛羊雞等基本平穩(wěn)。
圖1(截圖來源:農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部網(wǎng)站)
圖2(截圖來源:農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部網(wǎng)站)
按照往年規(guī)律,節(jié)前肉類需求普遍增大,從而造成供應(yīng)緊張,價格有些許上漲是正?,F(xiàn)象,整體來說,不會出現(xiàn)大幅上漲。就拿大家關(guān)心的豬肉來說,專家認(rèn)為豬肉價格進(jìn)一步上漲空間有限:一方面,生豬存欄和能繁母豬存欄持續(xù)穩(wěn)健回升,供給已顯著好于去年同期;另一方面,受疫情影響,“社交距離”影響下會減少一部分餐飲業(yè)零售額,豬肉需求相對會小于去年同期。此外,豬肉面臨較大上漲壓力時政府會進(jìn)行中央儲備凍豬肉投放,從而避免價格大幅上漲。而且2020年豬肉的進(jìn)口數(shù)量也一直保持高位,額外的豬肉供給也有助于穩(wěn)定豬肉價格。
肉類產(chǎn)業(yè)面臨挑戰(zhàn)?
其實(shí),今年我國肉類供應(yīng)總體是偏緊的。受多重因素影響,我國肉類產(chǎn)量呈下滑的態(tài)勢。據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),今年上半年,豬牛羊肉產(chǎn)量普降,禽肉產(chǎn)量僅小幅上漲。
不止是今年,在“十三五”期間,全國肉類產(chǎn)量總體呈下降趨勢。國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2020年上半年,全國豬牛羊禽肉合計(jì)產(chǎn)量3489萬噸,同比減少422萬噸,下降10.8%。在肉類總產(chǎn)量中的比重,豬肉從2015年的63.6%降至2019年的54.7%。而據(jù)國家海關(guān)總署統(tǒng)計(jì),2020年上半年肉類進(jìn)口475萬噸,同比增長73.5%。與此同時,肉類出口逐年下降。2019年我國肉類出口總量12.33萬噸,比2015年的78.65萬噸減少了66.32萬噸,減幅84.3%。
非洲豬瘟疫情和疫情的疊加,給我國肉類產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展帶來巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。業(yè)內(nèi)專家認(rèn)為,肉類產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展面臨著諸多的挑戰(zhàn),疫情等因素導(dǎo)致肉類貿(mào)易的不確定性也同時在增加,尤其是國內(nèi)外環(huán)境的深刻變化,未來發(fā)展既帶來了一系列的挑戰(zhàn)。
保障“肉類安全”
農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)前期的多篇文章曾提到,對于一個農(nóng)業(yè)大國和人口大國,要保證糧食安全,實(shí)現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)全面現(xiàn)代化是必定的。對肉類來說也是同樣道理,要保障“肉類安全”,實(shí)現(xiàn)畜牧養(yǎng)殖業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化規(guī)?;?、提升全程機(jī)械化水平是重要途徑。
2019年底,農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部印發(fā)《關(guān)于加快畜牧業(yè)機(jī)械化發(fā)展的意見》,為未來幾年我國畜牧業(yè)發(fā)展指明了方向。《意見》指出,到2025年,畜牧業(yè)機(jī)械化率總體達(dá)到50%以上,主要畜禽養(yǎng)殖全程機(jī)械化取得顯著成效。其中,奶牛規(guī)模化養(yǎng)殖機(jī)械化率達(dá)到80%以上,生豬、蛋雞、肉雞規(guī)模化養(yǎng)殖機(jī)械化率達(dá)到70%以上,肉牛、肉羊規(guī)模化養(yǎng)殖機(jī)械化率達(dá)到50%以上,大規(guī)模養(yǎng)殖場基本實(shí)現(xiàn)全程機(jī)械化。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化規(guī)模養(yǎng)殖與機(jī)械化協(xié)調(diào)并進(jìn)的畜牧業(yè)發(fā)展新格局基本形成,有條件的地區(qū)主要畜種規(guī)?;B(yǎng)殖率先基本實(shí)現(xiàn)全程機(jī)械化。
在推進(jìn)主要畜種規(guī)?;B(yǎng)殖全程機(jī)械化方面,《意見》指出,以生豬、蛋雞、肉雞、奶牛、肉牛、肉羊等養(yǎng)殖為主要對象,制定發(fā)布規(guī)模化養(yǎng)殖設(shè)施裝備配套技術(shù)規(guī)范,推進(jìn)畜種、養(yǎng)殖工藝、設(shè)施裝備集成配套,加強(qiáng)養(yǎng)殖全過程機(jī)械化技術(shù)指導(dǎo),大力推進(jìn)主要畜種養(yǎng)殖全程機(jī)械化。
在推動科技創(chuàng)新方面,健全完善畜牧工程與裝備重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室和科研基地,加強(qiáng)生豬、蛋雞、肉雞、奶牛、肉牛、肉羊等產(chǎn)業(yè)技術(shù)體系相關(guān)崗位專家隊(duì)伍和綜合試驗(yàn)站建設(shè),推動建設(shè)一批產(chǎn)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新聯(lián)盟,充實(shí)全國農(nóng)機(jī)化科技創(chuàng)新專家組畜牧養(yǎng)殖工程領(lǐng)域力量,為畜牧機(jī)械裝備的科技創(chuàng)新提供有力支撐。
在加強(qiáng)新裝備新技術(shù)示范推廣上,大力支持工程防疫、智能飼喂、精準(zhǔn)環(huán)控、畜產(chǎn)品自動化采集加工、廢棄物資源化利用等健康養(yǎng)殖和綠色高效機(jī)械裝備技術(shù)試驗(yàn)示范。加快優(yōu)質(zhì)飼草青貯、農(nóng)作物秸稈制備飼料、畜禽糞污肥料化利用等機(jī)械化技術(shù)推廣應(yīng)用,推動構(gòu)建農(nóng)牧配套、種養(yǎng)結(jié)合的生態(tài)循環(huán)模式。積極示范推廣先進(jìn)適用的暖棚、冷庫等設(shè)施和特產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖需要的高效專用技術(shù)裝備。
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